Will the recession hit in 2019?
The recession could be that severe
The Expert Council for the Assessment of Macroeconomic Development in Germany published a special report on the occasion of the Corona crisis. As the Statista graphic shows, the experts have developed three different scenarios. in the Scenario 1 assume that the economic situation will normalize again during the summer. The GDP decline would be -2.8 percent in 2020; the line here would be V-shaped. According to the German Council of Economic Experts, this scenario is currently considered to be the most likely.
At the Scenario 2 the line would run in the form of a much more pronounced V. For 2020 as a whole, the GDP decline would be -5.4 percent. This scenario could arise if the current measures had to be sustained longer than planned.
If the anti-corona measures are still necessary beyond the summer, that could be Scenario 3 enter. The line here corresponds to a long U. The political measures would not be sufficient here, and this would result in deep negative effects on the economic structure of Germany. Numerous bankruptcies and layoffs would be inevitable.
In scenarios 1 and 2, the economy recovers comparatively quickly and would grow strongly in 2021 (+3.7 percent in scenario 1 and +4.9 percent in scenario 2). In the third scenario, growth in the coming year would be significantly weaker and only be +1.0 percent.
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